Friday, February 20, 2009

January CPI-U Value

The CPI-U rate for January 2009 increased to 211.143. The increase over December's 210.228 marks the first period of inflation instead of deflation for this cycle, but it is still far below September's 218.783, which is when the next inflation-linked rate will be derived from.

Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
218.783 216.573 212.425 210.228 211.143    

Even if we experience significant inflation in the next month, it is unlikely the CPI-U rate will reach 218 again. This means that the inflation-linked portion of the next I bond will still most likely be negative and is likely to result in a 0% period for most, if not all, I bonds.

The CPI-U would have to reach 215 before the highest fixed rate I bonds issued (3.6% fixed) would earn a non-zero return.

I bonds and CPI-U