The CPI-U increased from September's value of 241.428 to March's value of 243.801 (0.98%).
Previously issued bonds will see their variable rate adjust on the semi-annual anniversary of their issue date.
The CPI-U numbers have finally been released after the delay caused by the government shutdown and we can begin to speculate on the next I-Bond Rate.
September's CPI-U value of 234.149 shows an increase over March's value of 232.773, or 0.59%. The resulting semi-annual inflation component of the November composite rate will be 1.18%, which is the same as it is now.
If we assume the fixed rate portion is not increased again, the resulting composite rate for a new I Bond in November will be 1.18% again.
| Theoretical Fixed Rate | Composite Rate |
| 0.00% | 1.18% |
| 0.10% | 1.28% |
| 0.20% | 1.38% |
| 0.30% | 1.48% |
| 0.40% | 1.58% |
| 0.50% | 1.68% |
| 0.60% | 1.78% |
| 0.70% | 1.88% |
| 0.80% | 1.98% |
| 0.90% | 2.09% |
| 1.00% | 2.19% |
| 1.10% | 2.29% |
| 1.20% | 2.39% |
| 1.30% | 2.49% |
| 1.40% | 2.59% |
The CPI-U value increased from September's value of 231.407 to a value of 232.773 in March 2013. The resulting 0.59% semi-annual increase translates to a 1.18% CPI-U-linked rate for the May I Bond. The fixed rate of the newly issued bonds remains 0% for this period of May through November. The resulting composite rate is therefore 1.18% for a newly purchased I Bond.
As expected, the I bond rate for the period of November 2012 through April 2013 will have a composite rate of 1.76%. The new composite rate reflects the 0.88% increase in semi-annual inflation as mesaured by the CPI-U index and the new fixed rate, which remained at 0%.
As always, the 1.76% rate is available now for newly purchased bonds while the 0.88% CPI-U change will affect currently issued bonds on the 6-month anniversary of the bond's issue date.
Source http://www.treasurydirect.gov/news/pressroom/pressroom_comeeandi1112.htm| March | April | May | June | July | Aug. | Sept. |
| 229.392 | 230.085 | 229.815 | 229.478 | 229.104 | 230.379 | 231.407 |
| Theoretical Fixed Rate | Composite Rate |
| 0.00% | 1.76% |
| 0.10% | 1.86% |
| 0.20% | 1.96% |
| 0.30% | 2.06% |
| 0.40% | 2.16% |
| 0.50% | 2.26% |
| 0.60% | 2.37% |
| 0.70% | 2.47% |
| 0.80% | 2.57% |
| 0.90% | 2.67% |
| 1.00% | 2.77% |
| 1.10% | 2.87% |
| 1.20% | 2.97% |
| 1.30% | 3.07% |
| 1.40% | 3.17% |
What will the next I Bond rate be? Now that we have the 6 month change in the CPI-U for September to March, we know what the inflation-linked rate will be in May 2012. We will now know the fixed rate of the new bonds until the May announcement, but we can calculate what the composite rate may be based on different values for the fixed rate.
The CPI-U increased by 1.1% for this semi-annual period. The fixed rate is currently set at 0%, where it has been for the past 3 consecutive periods. If this fixed rate holds, we can see a May I Bond rate of 2.2%.
| Theoretical Fixed Rate | Composite Rate |
| 0.00% | 2.20% |
| 0.10% | 2.30% |
| 0.20% | 2.40% |
| 0.30% | 2.50% |
| 0.40% | 2.60% |
| 0.50% | 2.71% |
| 0.60% | 2.81% |
| 0.70% | 2.91% |
| 0.80% | 3.01% |
| 0.90% | 3.11% |
| 1.00% | 3.21% |
| 1.10% | 3.31% |
| 1.20% | 3.41% |
| 1.30% | 3.51% |
| 1.40% | 3.61% |
It seems likely the fixed rate will continue to stay at 0%, which would result in a 2.2% I Bond for the first 6 months. Since the current composite rate is 3.06% and it seems unlikely the fixed rate will improve, there is little reason to wait until May to purchase I Bonds.
The March CPI-U value has been released, meaning we can now calculate the inflation-linked rate of the May I Bond. With a CPI-U increase from 226.889 to 229.392, the semi-annual inflation results in a 1.1% inflation-linked rate for the May I Bond.
| Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. |
| 226.889 | 226.421 | 226.230 | 225.672 | 226.665 | 227.663 | 229.392 |
The CPI-U values for October and November show a slight deflationary period since the last CPI-U value for the November I Bond was released. The CPI-U value for October fell from September’s value of 226.889 to 226.421. The value fell again from October’s value to the November value of 226.230. It is far too early to tell what the value of the May I Bond will be, but with deflation or low inflation, the variable rate is sure to be low again.
| Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. |
| 226.889 | 226.421 | 226.230 |
Now that the CPI-U values for March through September have been released, we can determine what the range of possible rates will be for the November I Bond.
The CPI-U increase from 223.467 to 226.889 results in an inflation-linked rate of 1.53%. Buying an I Bond in October (before the rate change) would result in 6 months of the current 4.60% composite rate followed by 6 months of the new composite rate of 3.06%.
The new November composite rate cannot be determined exactly since the fixed rate is not known until November. We can determine the possible range of composite rates based on the inflation-linked rate of 1.53% and calculating for different values of the new fixed rate. If you are debating whether or not to buy now or in November, the current fixed rate of 0% does not lend itself to long-term investing while the 4.60% composite rate is more attractive for shorter-term investing. That said, it doesn’t seem likely the fixed rate will rise above 0% in November, either.
| Theoretical Fixed Rate | Composite Rate |
| 0.00% | 3.06% |
| 0.10% | 3.16% |
| 0.20% | 3.26% |
| 0.30% | 3.36% |
| 0.40% | 3.47% |
| 0.50% | 3.57% |
| 0.60% | 3.67% |
| 0.70% | 3.77% |
| 0.80% | 3.87% |
| 0.90% | 3.97% |
| 1.00% | 4.08% |
| 1.10% | 4.18% |
| 1.20% | 4.28% |
| 1.30% | 4.38% |
| 1.40% | 4.48% |
Since the current 0% fixed rate still results in a competitive 3.06% composite rate for a new I Bond, I believe the fixed rate will remain at 0% in November. The official release of the new rate will be on Tuesday, November 1, 2011.
The CPI-U value for September rose to 226.889. The September value also completes the semiannual period used in the November rate change. Based on the March to September change in CPI-U, the inflation-linked rate for the next semiannual rate change will be 1.53%.
| March | April | May | June | July | Aug. | Sept. |
| 223.467 | 224.906 | 225.964 | 225.722 | 225.922 | 226.545 | 226.889 |
The CPI-U value for August increased to 226.545. The August value represents a 1.38% increase since March’s value of 223.467. With one month remaining before the November I Bond inflation-linked rate is known, it seems inflation is under control. With no increase in September and a fixed rate on 0%, an I Bond would offer a 2.76% composite rate. The full range of possible rates will be known in mid-October.
| March | April | May | June | July | Aug. | Sept. |
| 223.467 | 224.906 | 225.964 | 225.722 | 225.922 | 226.545 |
The CPI-U recovered some ground lost in June by climbing to 225.922 in July. The July value is still lower than the May value, but is higher than the March value, which is what the next I Bond rate will be based on. The March to July change in CPI-U is 1.1%. Given no increase in August and September and a continued 0% fixed rate, a new I Bond composite rate would translate to 2.2%. The rate will not be known until all the semi-annual CPI-U values are known and the new fixed rate is announced November 1.
| March | April | May | June | July | Aug. | Sept. |
| 223.467 | 224.906 | 225.964 | 225.722 | 225.922 |
The US Treasury announced today that paper savings bonds will no longer be sold at financial institutions beginning January 1, 2012. Although paper bonds will no longer be available through institutions, they will still be available when purchased using your tax refund or as a replacement for reissued, lost, stolen, or destroyed paper bonds.
The move to cut paper bonds is said to save over $70 million in the first five years. All bond purchases from consumers will now be through TreasuryDirect.
There is no indication how this change will impact the current purchasing limit of $5,000 electronic and $5,000 paper bonds per year.
The May CPI-U value rose to 225.964. The November I Bond rate will be based on the change from the March to September rate.
| March | April | May | June | July | Aug. | Sept. |
| 223.467 | 224.906 | 225.964 |
The I Bond Rate for May 2011 will be 4.60%. The new composite rate includes the previously known 2.60% CPI-U change and the newly announced 0% fixed rate.
Fixed Rate: 0.00%
CPI-U Rate: 2.60%
Variable Rate: 4.60%
Composite Rate: 4.60%
TreasuryDirect Press Release: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/news/pressroom/pressroom_comeeandi0511.htm